Executive Summary

The last 90 days represent the most significant disruption to organic search visibility in Google's history. Business owners face a dual crisis: traditional algorithm volatility combined with the aggressive expansion of AI-powered answer engines that fundamentally change user behavior.

This isn't a temporary fluctuation—it's a permanent restructuring of how users discover and consume information online.

The December 2025 Core Update: "The Core Before Christmas"

Google deployed its most volatile algorithm update of 2025 during the peak holiday shopping season—a departure from their historical practice of avoiding major changes near year-end.

Timeline & Impact

• Rollout Period: December 11-29, 2025 (18 days)
• Volatility Spikes: December 13 and December 20
• Scope: Global, all languages, all industries
• Magnitude: Fourth core update of 2025 following March, June, and August updates

Winners & Losers

What Google Was Looking For

The December update intensified Google's focus on E-E-A-T signals—Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, and Trustworthiness.

• Genuine Expertise: Verifiable through credentials, professional experience, or documented reputation
  • Example: Financial advisor pages showing CFP® designation with link to FINRA BrokerCheck verification
  • Example: Medical content authored by board-certified physicians with visible MD license numbers and hospital affiliations
  • Example: Legal articles written by attorneys with bar admission numbers and practice area specializations listed
• First-Hand Experience: Evident through specific details, original media, testing results, case studies
  • Example: Product review with original photos showing the reviewer actually using the product, not stock images
  • Example: Case study showing "Client's revenue increased from $2.3M to $4.1M over 18 months" with specific metrics
  • Example: Tutorial with screenshots from the author's actual account, showing step-by-step process they personally completed
• User Value Over SEO: Content that helps users accomplish tasks rather than just ranking for keywords
  • Example: Mortgage calculator that actually works, not just a page targeting "mortgage calculator" with thin content
  • Example: Recipe that includes why certain steps matter ("fold egg whites gently to preserve air bubbles") not just ingredient lists
• Transparency: Clear author qualifications, methodologies, sources
  • Example: "This article was reviewed by Dr. Sarah Chen, Board-Certified Cardiologist, Johns Hopkins Hospital, last updated January 15, 2026"
  • Example: Investment advice disclosing "Author owns positions in mentioned securities as of January 2026"
• Accuracy & Trust: Proper sourcing, fact-checking, security protocols
  • Example: Health claims citing peer-reviewed studies from PubMed with clickable links: "According to a 2024 study in JAMA (link)"
  • Example: Financial data sourced from SEC filings, Federal Reserve reports, not third-party aggregators

Industry-Specific Impact

YMYL (Your Money Your Life) Sites Hit Hardest

YMYL is Google's designation for content that could impact users' health, financial stability, or safety. This includes healthcare, finance, legal, insurance, and any content giving advice that could affect someone's wellbeing.

• Health Publishers: 67% of sites affected, some lost 20+ visibility points
• Financial Services: 52% affected, heightened scrutiny of credentials
• Affiliate Sites: 71% affected, particularly thin content and review farms

The AI Overview Crisis: Understanding AEO

AEO stands for Answer Engine Optimization—the practice of optimizing content to appear as cited sources within AI-generated answers rather than traditional search results.

The Fundamental Shift

Google's AI Overviews (formerly Search Generative Experience/SGE) now appear for 15% of all search queries, up from 5% in early 2025. These AI-generated summaries appear at the top of search results, answering user questions before they ever see traditional organic listings.

The Traffic Impact Data

Industries Most Affected by AI Overviews

Zero-Click Searches: The New Normal

Zero-click searches occur when users get their answer directly from the search results page without clicking through to any website.

• Current Rate: 60-69% of searches end without a click
• 2024 Rate: 56%
• Projected 2026: 70%+ of queries

This means that in 2026, only 30% of searches will result in actual website visits, down from 44% just two years ago.

October-November 2025: The Silent Updates

While no major core update was officially confirmed in October or November, significant changes occurred:

October 2025

• Spam Update: Targeted manipulative tactics including link schemes, cloaked content, thin pages
• Mobile-First Reinforcement: Sites without mobile optimization saw ranking declines
• Local Search Algorithm Changes: Google My Business prominence increased
• AI Mode Integration: Conversational search results expanded

November 2025

• Unconfirmed Volatility: Significant ranking fluctuations without official announcement
• Search Serving Issue: Google acknowledged brief global visibility problems
• AI Overview Expansion: Continued rollout to more query types
• Query Groups Feature: Google Search Console added AI-powered query clustering

What Your SEO Provider Should Be Doing Right Now

Technical Optimization for AI Overviews (AEO)

Content Structure Changes

AI systems favor content with specific structural patterns:

• Clear Hierarchical Structure: Use H2/H3 headings to organize information logically
• Scannable Formatting: Bullet points, numbered lists, short paragraphs (2-3 sentences max)
• Topic Clustering: Group related information under relevant subheadings
• Answer-First Approach: Lead with direct answer, then provide supporting details
• Conversational Language: Match how users actually search (long-tail, question-based queries)

Semantic Optimization

Semantic understanding refers to how AI comprehends meaning and context, not just keywords.

• Entity Optimization: Include relevant people, places, companies, concepts naturally
• Contextual Keyword Clusters: Use related terms and synonyms (LSI keywords)
• Topic Modeling: Cover all aspects of a subject comprehensively
• Intent Matching: Align content with specific search intents (informational, commercial, transactional)

The Citation Advantage

Being cited in an AI Overview is more valuable than ranking #3 in traditional results:

Industry-Specific Recommendations

For Healthcare, Finance, Legal (YMYL Industries)

• Author Credentials Front & Center: Display professional licenses, certifications, years of experience prominently
• Medical/Financial Review Process: Document expert review and approval workflows
• Citation to Primary Sources: Link to peer-reviewed research, official regulations, authoritative data
• Case Studies & Outcomes: Demonstrate first-hand experience with real examples
• Updated Content Dates: Show content freshness with clear revision dates

For eCommerce & Retail

• Product Schema Markup: Detailed structured data for pricing, availability, reviews
• Original Product Media: Unique photos, videos, 360-degree views
• Expert Buying Guides: Comparison content that demonstrates product knowledge
• User-Generated Content: Authentic reviews with verification markers
• Stock & Pricing Accuracy: Real-time inventory and pricing data

For Professional Services

• Portfolio/Case Study Library: Detailed project examples with measurable results
• Industry Recognition: Awards, certifications, speaking engagements, published articles
• Process Documentation: Transparent methodology explanations
• Client Testimonials with Context: Specific results, not generic praise
• Team Expertise Pages: Individual bios showing specialized knowledge

For Publishers & Content Sites

• Original Reporting: First-hand interviews, data collection, investigative journalism
• Expert Contributors: Subject matter experts with verifiable credentials
• Multi-Source Verification: Cross-reference claims with multiple authoritative sources
• Data Visualization: Original charts, graphs, infographics
• Breaking News + Analysis: Timeliness combined with expert interpretation

Measuring Success in the AI Era

Traditional Metrics Still Matter

• Organic Sessions
• Conversion Rate
• Revenue Per Visit
• Keyword Rankings (positions 1-10)

New Metrics to Track

• AI Overview Appearance Rate: Percentage of target keywords that trigger AI Overviews
• Citation Frequency: How often your brand is cited in AI-generated answers
• Share of Voice in AI: Your citations vs. competitor citations for target topics
• Zero-Click Impression Share: Visibility in AI answers even without clicks
• Query Group Performance: Rankings across intent clusters, not just individual keywords
• E-E-A-T Score: Qualitative assessment of expertise markers on-site

The Reality Check: What's Actually Happening

Publisher Traffic Collapse

• Business Insider: -55% organic search traffic (April 2022 to April 2025), led to 21% staff cuts
• HuffPost: Lost 50% of search referrals over the same period
• Stereogum: -70% ad revenue in 2025, attributed primarily to AI Overviews
• Music Blog Average: -40% to -90% traffic depending on content type

Educational & Reference Sites

• Chegg: -49% non-subscriber traffic, filed antitrust lawsuit against Google
• Wikipedia: Lost 435+ visibility points in December 2025 update alone
• How-To Sites: -30% to -60% depending on query complexity

Global Data

• US Publishers: -38% Google organic referrals year-over-year
• Google Discover: -29% referrals (US publishers)
• Global Average: -33% across 2,500+ publisher websites

The Antitrust & Regulatory Landscape

European Union Investigation

In November 2025, the EU opened an antitrust investigation into Google's spam policies and site reputation abuse crackdowns. Key concerns:

• Publishers claim Google's AI uses their content without fair compensation
• AI Overviews allegedly "scrape" content while reducing click-through opportunities
• Antitrust chief Teresa Ribera: Google's policies "do not allow news publishers to be treated in a fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory manner"

US Lawsuits

• Chegg v. Google: Claims unauthorized content scraping to train AI competitors
• Publisher Coalition: Multiple news organizations exploring joint legal action
• Copyright Challenges: Questions about fair use when AI synthesizes copyrighted content

What this means: Regulatory pressure may force changes to AI Overview implementation or create compensation mechanisms for content creators. However, these changes will take years to materialize—businesses cannot wait for regulatory relief.

What Custody & Agency Is Doing About It

For New Clients

• Dual-Track Strategy: Traditional SEO for queries without AI Overviews + AEO optimization for AI-affected queries
• Expertise Architecture: Building verifiable authority markers (author credentials, case studies, original research)
• Structured Data Implementation: FAQPage, HowTo, Article schemas optimized for AI consumption
• Content Cluster Development: Interconnected topic hubs that demonstrate comprehensive expertise
• Citation Tracking: Monthly reports on AI Overview appearances and competitor citation analysis

For Existing Clients

• Impact Assessment: Quantifying how much traffic loss is AI-driven vs. algorithm changes
• Recovery Roadmap: Prioritizing pages hit by December update based on business value
• E-E-A-T Enhancement: Adding expertise signals to existing high-value content
• Traffic Diversification: Email list building, social strategy, direct traffic initiatives
• Competitive Citation Analysis: Identifying which competitors are winning AI citations and why

Platform Migrations & Technical SEO

For clients undergoing platform changes (like our recent Square-to-Shopify migrations), we're implementing AI-first architecture from day one:

• Schema markup built into templates, not added as afterthought
• Answer-first content structure in product descriptions
• Author attribution and expertise markers in CMS workflows
• Mobile-first design with Core Web Vitals optimization
• Structured FAQ sections on every category and product page

The Hard Truth: Not All Traffic Is Recoverable

Some types of queries are permanently lost to AI Overviews:

• Simple Factual Queries: "What is X?" "When did Y happen?" "Who invented Z?"
• Mathematical/Conversion: "Convert 5 km to miles" "Calculate mortgage payment"
• Basic How-To: "How to hard boil eggs" "How to tie a tie"
• Weather & Time: "Weather tomorrow" "Time in Tokyo"
• Quick Reference: "Vitamin D daily intake" "Symptoms of strep throat"

These queries represent 40-50% of informational searches. They're gone. Your provider should not promise to recover traffic from these query types.

Where Traffic IS Recoverable

• Complex Decision-Making: "Best CRM for small business" requires nuanced comparison
• Local Services: "HVAC repair near me" still drives clicks to local businesses
• Transactional Queries: "Buy X" "X for sale" still require merchant pages
• Deep Research: "How to choose between X and Y" needs comprehensive analysis
• Timely/Breaking: Current events, recent news, trending topics
• Visual Content: Image search, video results, visual comparisons

Timeline: What to Expect in 2026

Q1 2026 (Now - March)

• Continued AI Overview expansion to commercial and transactional queries
• Possible "correction" update for over-impacted news publishers (historically Google has done this)
• Google Search Console adds more AI-specific reporting features
• Recovery begins for sites that made December update improvements

Q2 2026 (April - June)

• Next major core update likely (Google averages 3-4 per year)
• AI Overviews projected to reach 20-25% of all queries
• EU regulatory decisions may impact AI Overview implementation in Europe
• ChatGPT and Perplexity referral traffic increases but remains <2% of total

Q3-Q4 2026

• Zero-click search rate projected to hit 70%
• Traditional organic CTR continues declining to new lows
• AI Overview monetization likely (ads within AI answers)
• Publishers either adapt or consolidate/shut down

Action Plan: 30-60-90 Day Roadmap

Days 1-30: Assessment & Triage

1. Data Analysis
   • Pull Google Search Console data for Oct 1 - Jan 20
   • Identify pages with >30% traffic decline
   • Check if decline correlates with AI Overview appearance
   • Separate algorithm impact from AI impact
2. Competitor Citation Audit
   • Manually search 20-30 target keywords
   • Document which competitors appear in AI Overviews
   • Analyze their content structure and expertise markers
   • Identify citation gaps
3. Technical Health Check
   • Core Web Vitals scores (must be "Good" on mobile)
   • Mobile-first indexing status
   • Structured data errors in Search Console
   • Crawl errors and indexing issues

Days 31-60: Strategic Fixes

1. E-E-A-T Enhancement
   • Add/update author bios with credentials
   • Create team expertise page if B2B
   • Add "medically reviewed by" or "fact-checked by" if applicable
   • Document content review and update processes
2. Content Restructuring
   • Implement answer-first format on top 20 pages
   • Add FAQ sections with FAQPage schema
   • Break long paragraphs into scannable chunks
   • Add bullet points and numbered lists where appropriate
3. Schema Implementation
   • FAQPage schema on service pages
   • HowTo schema on instructional content
   • Article schema on blog posts with author info
   • Organization schema with social profiles

Days 61-90: Expansion & Monitoring

1. Content Cluster Development
   • Identify 3-5 core topics for authority building
   • Map existing content to clusters
   • Create pillar pages for each cluster
   • Internal linking structure to connect related content
2. Diversification Initiatives
   • Email list building (exit intent popups, content upgrades)
   • Social media content distribution
   • Direct traffic campaigns (brand awareness)
   • Alternative search platforms (Bing, DuckDuckGo)
3. Measurement Framework
   • Set up AI Overview tracking dashboard
   • Weekly ranking checks on priority keywords
   • Monthly citation frequency reports
   • Quarterly competitor benchmarking

Questions Your Provider Should Be Able to Answer

Use these questions to assess whether your SEO provider understands the current landscape:

1. "How much of our traffic decline is due to AI Overviews vs. algorithm changes?"
   • Good answer: "Let me pull your Search Console data and show you the breakdown. We'll compare queries that trigger AI Overviews versus those that don't, filter by CTR decline patterns, and separate ranking drops from click erosion. I'll have specific percentages for you by end of day."
   • Bad answer: "Traffic is down across the board because of the December update. Google's been hitting everyone hard. We need to focus on building more links and creating more content to recover." (Misses AI Overview impact entirely, defaults to 2019 tactics)
2. "Are we being cited in any AI Overviews for our target keywords?"
   • Good answer: "Yes, you're cited for 'commercial mortgage refinancing' and 'SBA 7a loan requirements' but not for broader terms like 'business loans' or 'commercial real estate financing' where your competitors dominate the citations. Here's the list with screenshots."
   • Bad answer: "Rankings are what matter. If you're ranking in the top 3, you're getting the traffic. We're focused on improving your traditional rankings first, then we can look at that AI stuff later." (Doesn't understand that #1 with AI Overview = 0.61% CTR vs 1.62% without)
3. "Which competitors are winning AI citations in our industry?"
   • Good answer: "Bank of America gets cited on 68% of banking queries in our sample. Navy Federal Credit Union appears in 34% despite being smaller—they're winning on detailed how-to content. Wells Fargo dropped from 45% to 22% after the December update. Here's the full competitor citation matrix."
   • Bad answer: "Your main competitors are ranking well, but you have better domain authority than most of them. We're outranking them on several key terms already, so we're in good shape competitively." (Confuses rankings with AI citations, uses outdated DA metrics)
4. "What E-E-A-T signals are we currently showing Google?"
   • Good answer: "Your site has author bios but they don't include professional licenses or certifications. Your 'About' page lists the team but doesn't show CFP® credentials. Blog posts lack publication dates and medical review signatures. Your case studies don't cite specific client outcomes. Here's a 12-point E-E-A-T audit with examples from competitors who do this right."
     
     Specific E-E-A-T signals you should have:
     • Experience markers: "I've personally completed 200+ VA loan applications" not just "We help veterans with home loans"
     • Expertise credentials: Display CPA license numbers, bar admissions, medical board certifications with verification links
     • Authoritativeness proof: "Featured in Wall Street Journal" with links, speaking engagements at industry conferences, published research
     • Trust signals: BBB accreditation, state licenses, malpractice insurance, security badges, client testimonials with full names and companies
   • Bad answer: "We have great content that's well-written and optimized for keywords. Our blog posts are comprehensive and we update them regularly. The content quality is definitely there." (Confuses content quality with expertise demonstration—doesn't understand Google needs verifiable credentials)
5. "What's our diversification strategy beyond Google organic?"
   • Good answer: "We're building an email list with lead magnets on your top 3 service pages, setting up LinkedIn thought leadership posts twice weekly, creating a YouTube channel for complex topics AI can't summarize, and implementing a referral program. Goal is to reduce Google dependency from 65% to 40% of total traffic within 6 months."
   • Bad answer: "SEO is our core competency. Once we get your Google rankings up, the traffic will come. We can talk about other channels later, but right now we need to focus on what moves the needle." (Dangerously outdated—doesn't understand Google organic is permanently diminished)

Conclusion: Adapt or Become Invisible

The last 90 days have fundamentally altered the search landscape. The December 2025 core update was volatile, but the real crisis is the permanent shift to AI-powered answer engines that keep users on Google rather than sending them to websites.

The businesses that will thrive in 2026:

• Treat Google as one channel among many, not the only channel
• Build genuine expertise and authority that AI systems recognize and cite
• Create comprehensive, interconnected content that demonstrates topical mastery
• Optimize for citations and share of voice, not just rankings
• Diversify traffic sources aggressively
• Accept that some query types are permanently lost to AI

The businesses that will struggle:

• Continue optimizing for 2019-era ranking factors
• Rely on thin content or AI-generated fluff
• Ignore expertise signals and E-E-A-T requirements
• Put all traffic eggs in the Google organic basket
• Wait for "things to go back to normal" (they won't)

Frequently Asked Questions

Sources & Data

This report synthesizes data from multiple authoritative sources:

1. Seer Interactive — "AIO Impact on Google CTR: September 2025 Update" (November 2025). Analysis of 3,119 informational queries across 42 organizations, spanning 25.1 million organic impressions and 1.1 million paid impressions from June 2024 to September 2025. Source of the 61% organic CTR decline and 68% paid CTR decline data.
2. Semrush — "AI Overviews Study" (December 2025). Comprehensive analysis of over 10 million keywords throughout 2025, tracking AI Overview prevalence across industries and query types. Source of industry saturation data and zero-click search trends.
3. Amsive Digital Marketing — "Google's December 2025 Core Update: Winners, Losers & Analysis" (January 2026). SISTRIX Visibility Index analysis of the 1,000 biggest winners and losers across U.S. search results. Source of Wikipedia visibility loss (-435 points) and industry-specific impact data.
4. SE Ranking — "Google December 2025 Core Update: 15% of TOP 10 Pages Gone" (January 2026). Comparative analysis of 100,000 keywords across 20 niches before (November 10, 2025) and after (January 5, 2026) the update. Source of the 15% page disappearance statistic and domain age data.
5. Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism — "Journalism and Technology Trends and Predictions 2026" (January 2026). Survey of 280 media leaders from 51 countries combined with Chartbeat data from 2,500+ publisher websites. Source of global publisher traffic decline (-33%) and future traffic projection data (-43% expected over next three years).
6. Search Engine Journal — "Google AI Overviews Impact On Publishers & How To Adapt Into 2026" (October 2025). Compilation of independent research including Pew Research Center study of 68,000 real search queries showing 46.7% CTR reduction when AI summaries appear.
7. Glenn Gabe / GSQi — "'The Core Before Christmas' - Google's December 2025 Broad Core Update Analysis" (January 2026). Detailed analysis of YMYL impact, AI Overview visibility changes, news publisher volatility, and 18-day rollout patterns.

All data current as of January 25, 2026. Search landscape continues to evolve rapidly—contact us for updated analysis specific to your industry.

Next Steps

If you're experiencing traffic declines and want to understand specifically how the December update and AI Overviews have impacted your site:

1. State of Search Audit — We'll analyze your Search Console data to separate AI impact from algorithm changes
2. Competitor Citation Analysis — See which competitors are winning AI citations and why
3. E-E-A-T Assessment — Identify gaps in your expertise signals that are hurting rankings
4. Recovery Roadmap — Get a 90-day action plan specific to your business